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Towards Automating Data Access Permissions in AI Agents

Wu, Yuhao, Yang, Ke, Roesner, Franziska, Kohno, Tadayoshi, Zhang, Ning, Iqbal, Umar

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As AI agents attempt to autonomously act on users' behalf, they raise transparency and control issues. We argue that permission-based access control is indispensable in providing meaningful control to the users, but conventional permission models are inadequate for the automated agentic execution paradigm. We therefore propose automated permission management for AI agents. Our key idea is to conduct a user study to identify the factors influencing users' permission decisions and to encode these factors into an ML-based permission management assistant capable of predicting users' future decisions. We find that participants' permission decisions are influenced by communication context but importantly individual preferences tend to remain consistent within contexts, and align with those of other participants. Leveraging these insights, we develop a permission prediction model achieving 85.1% accuracy overall and 94.4% for high-confidence predictions. We find that even without using permission history, our model achieves an accuracy of 66.9%, and a slight increase of training samples (i.e., 1-4) can substantially increase the accuracy by 10.8%.


Evaluating Large Language Models for IUCN Red List Species Information

Uryu, Shinya

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly being adopted in conservation to address the biodiversity crisis, yet their reliability for species evaluation is uncertain. This study systematically validates five leading models on 21,955 species across four core IUCN Red List assessment components: taxonomy, conservation status, distribution, and threats. A critical paradox was revealed: models excelled at taxonomic classification (94.9%) but consistently failed at conservation reasoning (27.2% for status assessment). This knowledge-reasoning gap, evident across all models, suggests inherent architectural constraints, not just data limitations. Furthermore, models exhibited systematic biases favoring charismatic vertebrates, potentially amplifying existing conservation inequities. These findings delineate clear boundaries for responsible LLM deployment: they are powerful tools for information retrieval but require human oversight for judgment-based decisions. A hybrid approach is recommended, where LLMs augment expert capacity while human experts retain sole authority over risk assessment and policy.


Deep learning four decades of human migration

Gaskin, Thomas, Abel, Guy J.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

W e present a novel and detailed dataset on origin-destination annual migration flows and stocks between 230 countries and regions, spanning the period from 1990 to the present. Our flow estimates are further disaggregated by country of birth, providing a comprehensive picture of migration over the last 35 years. The estimates are obtained by training a deep recurrent neural network to learn flow patterns from 18 covariates for all countries, including geographic, economic, cultural, societal, and political information. The recurrent architecture of the neural network means that the entire past can influence current migration patterns, allowing us to learn long-range temporal correlations. By training an ensemble of neural networks and additionally pushing uncertainty on the covariates through the trained network, we obtain confidence bounds for all our estimates, allowing researchers to pinpoint the geographic regions most in need of additional data collection. W e validate our approach on various test sets of unseen data, demonstrating that it significantly outperforms traditional methods estimating five-year flows while delivering a significant increase in temporal resolution. The model is fully open source: all training data, neural network weights, and training code are made public alongside the migration estimates, providing a valuable resource for future studies of human migration.


Enhancing Ethereum Fraud Detection via Generative and Contrastive Self-supervision

Jin, Chenxiang, Zhou, Jiajun, Xie, Chenxuan, Yu, Shanqing, Xuan, Qi, Yang, Xiaoniu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rampant fraudulent activities on Ethereum hinder the healthy development of the blockchain ecosystem, necessitating the reinforcement of regulations. However, multiple imbalances involving account interaction frequencies and interaction types in the Ethereum transaction environment pose significant challenges to data mining-based fraud detection research. To address this, we first propose the concept of meta-interactions to refine interaction behaviors in Ethereum, and based on this, we present a dual self-supervision enhanced Ethereum fraud detection framework, named Meta-IFD. This framework initially introduces a generative self-supervision mechanism to augment the interaction features of accounts, followed by a contrastive self-supervision mechanism to differentiate various behavior patterns, and ultimately characterizes the behavioral representations of accounts and mines potential fraud risks through multi-view interaction feature learning. Extensive experiments on real Ethereum datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our framework in detecting common Ethereum fraud behaviors such as Ponzi schemes and phishing scams. Additionally, the generative module can effectively alleviate the interaction distribution imbalance in Ethereum data, while the contrastive module significantly enhances the framework's ability to distinguish different behavior patterns. The source code will be released on GitHub soon.


MIRAI: Evaluating LLM Agents for Event Forecasting

Ye, Chenchen, Hu, Ziniu, Deng, Yihe, Huang, Zijie, Ma, Mingyu Derek, Zhu, Yanqiao, Wang, Wei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.


Characterizing Mechanisms for Factual Recall in Language Models

Yu, Qinan, Merullo, Jack, Pavlick, Ellie

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Language Models (LMs) often must integrate facts they memorized in pretraining with new information that appears in a given context. These two sources can disagree, causing competition within the model, and it is unclear how an LM will resolve the conflict. On a dataset that queries for knowledge of world capitals, we investigate both distributional and mechanistic determinants of LM behavior in such situations. Specifically, we measure the proportion of the time an LM will use a counterfactual prefix (e.g., "The capital of Poland is London") to overwrite what it learned in pretraining ("Warsaw"). On Pythia and GPT2, the training frequency of both the query country ("Poland") and the in-context city ("London") highly affect the models' likelihood of using the counterfactual. We then use head attribution to identify individual attention heads that either promote the memorized answer or the in-context answer in the logits. By scaling up or down the value vector of these heads, we can control the likelihood of using the in-context answer on new data. This method can increase the rate of generating the in-context answer to 88\% of the time simply by scaling a single head at runtime. Our work contributes to a body of evidence showing that we can often localize model behaviors to specific components and provides a proof of concept for how future methods might control model behavior dynamically at runtime.



Deep Learning Models for Early Detection and Prediction of the spread of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Ayris, Devante, Horbury, Kye, Williams, Blake, Blackney, Mitchell, See, Celine Shi Hui, Shah, Syed Afaq Ali

arXiv.org Machine Learning

SARS-CoV2, which causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is continuing to spread globally and has become a pandemic. People have lost their lives due to the virus and the lack of counter measures in place. Given the increasing caseload and uncertainty of spread, there is an urgent need to develop machine learning techniques to predict the spread of COVID-19. Prediction of the spread can allow counter measures and actions to be implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a deep learning technique, called Deep Sequential Prediction Model (DSPM) and machine learning based Non-parametric Regression Model (NRM) to predict the spread of COVID-19. Our proposed models were trained and tested on novel coronavirus 2019 dataset, which contains 19.53 Million confirmed cases of COVID-19. Our proposed models were evaluated by using Mean Absolute Error and compared with baseline method. Our experimental results, both quantitative and qualitative, demonstrate the superior prediction performance of the proposed models.


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AI For Marketers: An Introduction and Primer, Second Edition

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